Ole Nan in Taiwan, 8-2-22: What Now?

Speculation and Potential Scenarios IF Ole Nan Goes to Taiwan ...
8-3-22, A number of military analysis publications are examining the various possible 'worst case scenarios' that could follow Speaker Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. One independent western analyst and China-Taiwan based watcher has laid out an insightful full range of hypothetical, albeit realistic scenarios involving different potential levels of Chinese aggression against the self-ruled island of Taiwan. It's titled:
Report: Red Clouds of War Looming Over Taiwan [1]
Posted on July 28, 2022 by jaydeegroot
[Excerpt follows]

​Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The Chinese People's Liberation Army [PLA] occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.

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Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.

Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.
[11] Full report here:
 thecultureshack.blog/2022/07/28/red-clouds-of-war-looming-over-taiwan/
or here www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-sink-pelosi-taiwan-headlines
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Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich went to Taiwan in 1998:
​Report here 
www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-08-02/newt-gingrich-downplays-china-threats-6853403.html

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History: What's behind the China-Taiwan divide?
8-2-22, BBC -- China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province which it has vowed to retake, by force if necessary. But Taiwan's leaders say it is clearly much more than a province, arguing that it is a sovereign independent nation....

In 1949, Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan ... 
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It's Time to Finally Recognize Taiwan as an Independent Nation

8-6-21, Spectator.org -- The only way to deter China from invading Taiwan is for the international community to collectively and openly recognize Taiwan as an independent country. [..] Despite China’s claims, Taiwan is a democratic country home to 23 million people with a vibrant and thriving economy. Yet, only 15 nations officially recognize Taiwan because of the “One China Policy” that  dictates that any country that wishes to establish or maintain diplomatic relations with China must sever official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
When the U.S. under Democrat President Jimmie Carter officially adopted the policy in 1979, thus severing official ties with Taipei, Washington simultaneously passed the Taiwan Relations Act, guaranteeing U.S. support in case of a Chinese attack. This ambiguous position has allowed the U.S. to normalize ties with China while deterring them from invading Taiwan. It’s a strategy that made perfect sense given the geopolitical context at the time, but unfortunately, it has become outdated. More here spectator.org/its-time-to-finally-recognize-taiwan-as-an-independent-country/
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On Jan 10, 2021 before President Trump left the White House he and Sec of State Mike Pompeo officially recognized Taiwan as a sovereign nation. However, all five nations in United Nations must do so.  

Countries That Recognize Taiwan 2022
In particular, a country must be recognized by all five permanent members of the UN Security Council:
Russia, the United States, France, the United Kingdom and China.
January 2021, President Trump recognized Taiwan - more here

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Unlike the Sovereign Nation of Israel
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International Recognition of Israel
On May 11, 1949, the UN General Assembly, by the requisite two-thirds majority of its then 58 members, approved the application to admit Israel to the UN by General Assembly Resolution 273. The vote in the General Assembly was 37 to 12, with 9 abstentions.  More here